Understanding land-use change in developing countries, particularly those situated in
environmentally vulnerable and and semi-arid zones, is crucial given the considerable
pressures arising due to rapid population growth, climate change and desertification.
The purpose of this research was to investigate the main drivers affecting land-use
change in the eastern part of the Nile Delta, Egypt in the last two decades. Two
contrasting cities in the region were selected for detailed analysis. Almansourah is an
ancient settlement relatively close to the Damietta branch of the Nile whereas Alzaqazig
is a recent development and the surrounding area was reclaimed from the desert.
The DPSIR (driving forces, pressures, state, impacts and responses) model was adopted
as the conceptual framework for organising and categorising the factors affecting landuse
change in these two areas. It is a linear, `formulaic' approach, based on the concept
of causality chains which connect human activities with environmental information. The
case study approach was used as the main methodology, although both qualitative and
quantitative techniques were employed throughout. A range of sources were consulted
throughout the investigation to ensure that the evidence was internally consistent:
remote sensing data, questionnaire data, interviews, participant observation and census
data. More than 180 farmers were interviewed in the two study areas and the majority of
these (71%) farmed less than 2ha.
Using remote sensing data it was found that crop patterns had changed considerably in
the two areas both with regard to their geographical distribution and extent. In the
Almansourah study area, the key changes during the past two decades were the increase
of cotton area and the decrease in rice, maize and other crops. In contrast, the Alzagazig
study area experienced an increase in cotton and rice area with minor increase in maize
fields. There was also an expansion of urban and rural-urban settlements into
agricultural land in both the study areas.One of the critical physical factors for land-use change was found to be the need for
irrigation water. Regarding the two study areas, Almansourah currently enjoys greater
availability of irrigation water because of its proximity to the Nile compared to
Alzagazig which facilitated land-use change in Almansourah. On a more general level
the aridity of the Nile Delta region makes water a limiting factor in agricultural
production.
Analysis of the driving forces showed that land-use change was highly dependent on
economic factors such as transportation availability and cost as well as the contribution
of women. Land-use change was significantly influenced by transportation availability
in Almansourah but not in Alzaqazig possibly because of the greater need to transport
agricultural produce to market. Social drivers were also found to be significant. One
significant pressure was caused by population growth; in Almansourah the lack of
alternative sources of land led to the expansion of urban and rural urban settlements
onto fertile agricultural fields. The study confirmed that a farmer's educational level
plays an important role in agricultural production. Almost 25% of farmers in
Almansourah and 30% in Alzaqaziq had no formal education and this difference led to
variations in land-use change between the areas. Education level was found to have a
considerable influence on crop rotation and manure use in the Almansourah study area.
Conversely, subsidies from private financial sources and rural women's contribution to
agricultural production were among the key drivers for land-use change in the
Alzaqazig study area.
One of the innovative aspects of this study was the application of the DPSIR
framework. Although it has been used to advantage in the developed world, it has not
been applied to study land-use change in an arid, developing country. The study
confirmed that the framework worked well in such a context. Notable strengths included
its comprehensive nature, ability to deal with uncertainty and handle different types of
data. A further advantage was that it could incorporate sub-models to investigate
individual driving forces, for example, the need for irrigation water. Overall the use of
DPSIR was flexible enough to highlight the major causative drivers affecting land-use
and also to take account of the action of more subtle and complex factors.
Date of Award | 2008 |
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Original language | English |
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Awarding Institution | |
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Investigation into land-use change in two contrasting areas in the Nile Delta, Egypt
Echtaie, R. S. (Author). 2008
Student thesis: PhD