Bahrain is an arid country with acute water shortage problems. The demand for water has
increased substantially over the last four decades, leading to over-exploitation from the
already scarce renewable groundwater resources. This has caused a significant decline in
groundwater levels, a drastic storage depletion, and serious deterioration in groundwater
quality. The imbalance between the available water supply and the projected water demand
has been growing rapidly, imposing a major constraint on the country's socio-economic
development. Resolving these problems or at least mitigating their adverse impacts
primarily requires a major shift from the supply-oriented approach to water planning,
which is currently being emphasised, towards a greater emphasis on demand-side
management policies. In this thesis, a combined approach of supply-demand analysis is
employed to investigate the water and management problems in the study area, with the
ultimate objective of establishing a supply-demand analytical framework to aid in the
formulation of an integrated water management policy.
The existing water resources are comprehensively assessed in terms of availability and
development constraints. The water use patterns and demand characteristics are
systematically analysed. The results of these analyses are shown to have important
implications from the water resources planning and management perspective. Using data
from cross-sectional surveys, separate water demand functions of both linear and log-linear
functional forms are estimated for the major water use activities. The empirical evidence
presented in this research suggests that certain socio-economic, demographic, physical,
climatic, and technological factors affect water use.
The variables household size and household/per capita income are found to be the most
important determinants of residential water use, with a priori expected signs. Average
price, however, does not have a statistically significant effect. Estimated income elasticities
vary from 0.12 to 0.22; household size elasticities range from 0.30 to 0.41. Empirical
estimates for summer and winter residential demand functions suggest some interesting
findings with respect to the seasonal variability in water use. Per capita income elasticities
of municipal demand of between 0.15 - 0.33 are estimated. Both the residential and
municipal income elasticity estimates appear to correlate favourably with some estimates
found in the literature. Not surprisingly, average price elasticity of per capita municipal
demand is estimated to be -0.066, indicating an extremely inelastic demand. In general, the
empirical findings from both the non-residential and agricultural surveys give less reliable
statistical results, perhaps owing to the insufficiency of data and/or lack of specific
explanatory variables. However, the variables number of bathrooms and presence of
swimming pool may be adequate indicators of the non-residential water use, while gross
cultivated area appears to be the best single predictor of the agricultural water use.
Industrial water demand is shown to be significantly and directly related to the variables
measuring production level, number of employees, and factory floor area. Validity tests for
the selected analytical models are made.
The water supply and demand relationships are examined and water balances for the
specified planning period are computed. The improved trend forecasting procedures
provide encouragingly accurate results when compared to the actual water use. Three
alternative water management scenarios are developed. Comparison among these scenarios
indicates that Scenario C, which integrates the supply and demand management policies, is
the most efficient option for achieving optimal water resources development and
management. Policy recommendations to enable effective formulation and implementation
of this option are presented.
Date of Award | 2004 |
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Original language | English |
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Awarding Institution | |
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DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN BAHRAIN: A COMBINED APPROACH OF SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS
AL-NOAIMI, M. A. (Author). 2004
Student thesis: PhD