Voter support for minor parties - Assessing the social and political context of voting at the 2004 European elections in greater London

The context of support for a range of minor parties in the United Kingdom is identified using ward-level aggregate data from the 2004 European elections in London. Four parties in particular, namely Respect, Green, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the British National Party (BNP), which collectively obtained 3 in 10 of all European votes cast in London and performed well at the subsequent general election in 2005, are considered. Bivariate and multivariate analyses, employing socio-economic and political variables, show that for each of the four parties there is an identifiable and reasonably well-defined ward-level context of support. Regression models help to explain around three-quarters of variance in vote support. Strong similarities are found in the context of support for the anti-European Union UKIP and the far-right, anti-immigrant BNP. Close study of the geography of support shows that while the spread of votes for minor parties is fairly homogeneous across some boroughs, in others there is a fair degree of heterogeneity.