Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Interglaciation and Implications for Future Change

N. R. Golledge; P. U. Clark; F. He; A. Dutton; C. S.M. Turney; C. J. Fogwill; T. R. Naish; R. H. Levy; R. M. McKay; D. P. Lowry; N. A.N. Bertler; G. B. Dunbar; A. E. Carlson

doi:10.1029/2021GL094513

Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Interglaciation and Implications for Future Change

N. R. Golledge^*, P. U. Clark, F. He, A. Dutton, C. S.M. Turney, C. J. Fogwill, T. R. Naish, R. H. Levy, R. M. McKay, D. P. Lowry, N. A.N. Bertler, G. B. Dunbar, A. E. Carlson

^*Corresponding author for this work

Faculty of Science and Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C “safe limit” of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here, we present new, transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve the conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West AIS may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL094513
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	17
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094513
Publication status	Published - 16 Sept 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Keywords

climate change
palaeoclimate
sea-level rise

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1029/2021GL094513

Cite this

Golledge, N. R., Clark, P. U., He, F., Dutton, A., Turney, C. S. M., Fogwill, C. J., Naish, T. R., Levy, R. H., McKay, R. M., Lowry, D. P., Bertler, N. A. N., Dunbar, G. B., & Carlson, A. E. (2021). Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Interglaciation and Implications for Future Change. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(17), Article e2021GL094513. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094513

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abstract = "The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C “safe limit” of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here, we present new, transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve the conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West AIS may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.",

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AU - Golledge, N. R.

AU - Clark, P. U.

AU - He, F.

AU - Dutton, A.

AU - Turney, C. S.M.

AU - Fogwill, C. J.

AU - Naish, T. R.

AU - Levy, R. H.

AU - McKay, R. M.

AU - Lowry, D. P.

AU - Bertler, N. A.N.

AU - Dunbar, G. B.

AU - Carlson, A. E.

PY - 2021/9/16

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N2 - The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C “safe limit” of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here, we present new, transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve the conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West AIS may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.

AB - The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C “safe limit” of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here, we present new, transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve the conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West AIS may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.

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KW - palaeoclimate

KW - sea-level rise

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Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Interglaciation and Implications for Future Change

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

UN SDGs

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