TY - JOUR
T1 - Mapping the Numbers of Dementia in Brazil
T2 - A Delphi Consensus Study
AU - Aliberti, Márlon Juliano Romero
AU - Suemoto, Claudia Kimie
AU - Laks, Jerson
AU - Caramelli, Paulo
AU - Dozzi Brucki, Sonia Maria
AU - Farina, Nicolas
AU - Apolinario, Daniel
AU - Camargos, Einstein Francisco
AU - d'Orsi, Eleonora
AU - Alves, Gilberto Sousa
AU - César-Freitas, Karolina Gouveia
AU - Rangel, Luís Fernando
AU - Chaves, Márcia Lorena Fagundes
AU - Lopes, Marcos Antonio
AU - Coletta, Marcus Vinicius Della
AU - Barbosa, Matheus Ghossain
AU - Frota, Norberto Anizio Ferreira
AU - Nitrini, Ricardo
AU - Ferri, Cleusa Pinheiro
N1 - © 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2025/2/12
Y1 - 2025/2/12
N2 - OBJECTIVES: As the global dementia crisis intensifies, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a pressing need for comprehensive prevalence data across diverse regions, including Brazil, where studies have been predominantly limited to affluent urban centers. This study aimed to conduct an expert consensus to determine the prevalence of all-cause dementia in Brazil, considering various age groups, sexes, and geographical areas.METHODS: A Delphi consensus process with clinical and academic experts from across Brazil was conducted to provide dementia prevalence estimates in people aged ≥ 60 years living throughout Brazil for 2019. Each round consisted of answering structured questionnaires that incorporated information from the literature. A priori criteria were used to ascertain the point in which consensus was achieved for > 70% of the 15 prevalence estimates-for (1) total, (2) women and men, and (3) the five Brazilian macro-regions. The current and projected dementia cases in Brazil were calculated based on age and sex population distributions.RESULTS: Fifteen experts, with a mean professional experience of 25 ± 10 years, reached a consensus in the fourth round. Experts agreed with a mean all-cause dementia prevalence of 8.5% among Brazilians aged ≥ 60 years, which comprised 2.46 million people in 2019 in this age. They reported higher dementia rates in women (9.1%) than men (7.7%); the highest total prevalence was in those over 80 where it exceeds 20%. Regional variations were also noted, with lower prevalence in the South (7.3%) and higher in the North (8.9%) and Northeast (10.1%). Projections estimate that considering Brazil's rapidly aging population, dementia cases will rise to 8.89 million by 2060.CONCLUSIONS: This Delphi study estimated that dementia already affects roughly 1 in 12 older Brazilians aged 60 and above, with slightly higher prevalence in women and significant geographical variations. These results underscore the urgency for targeted public health strategies in Brazil and offer a framework for similar challenges in other LMICs, especially given that dementia cases are projected to increase by approximately 3.6 times in 4 decades.
AB - OBJECTIVES: As the global dementia crisis intensifies, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a pressing need for comprehensive prevalence data across diverse regions, including Brazil, where studies have been predominantly limited to affluent urban centers. This study aimed to conduct an expert consensus to determine the prevalence of all-cause dementia in Brazil, considering various age groups, sexes, and geographical areas.METHODS: A Delphi consensus process with clinical and academic experts from across Brazil was conducted to provide dementia prevalence estimates in people aged ≥ 60 years living throughout Brazil for 2019. Each round consisted of answering structured questionnaires that incorporated information from the literature. A priori criteria were used to ascertain the point in which consensus was achieved for > 70% of the 15 prevalence estimates-for (1) total, (2) women and men, and (3) the five Brazilian macro-regions. The current and projected dementia cases in Brazil were calculated based on age and sex population distributions.RESULTS: Fifteen experts, with a mean professional experience of 25 ± 10 years, reached a consensus in the fourth round. Experts agreed with a mean all-cause dementia prevalence of 8.5% among Brazilians aged ≥ 60 years, which comprised 2.46 million people in 2019 in this age. They reported higher dementia rates in women (9.1%) than men (7.7%); the highest total prevalence was in those over 80 where it exceeds 20%. Regional variations were also noted, with lower prevalence in the South (7.3%) and higher in the North (8.9%) and Northeast (10.1%). Projections estimate that considering Brazil's rapidly aging population, dementia cases will rise to 8.89 million by 2060.CONCLUSIONS: This Delphi study estimated that dementia already affects roughly 1 in 12 older Brazilians aged 60 and above, with slightly higher prevalence in women and significant geographical variations. These results underscore the urgency for targeted public health strategies in Brazil and offer a framework for similar challenges in other LMICs, especially given that dementia cases are projected to increase by approximately 3.6 times in 4 decades.
KW - Humans
KW - Brazil/epidemiology
KW - Dementia/epidemiology
KW - Male
KW - Female
KW - Delphi Technique
KW - Aged
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Prevalence
KW - Consensus
KW - Aged, 80 and over
KW - Sex Distribution
KW - Surveys and Questionnaires
KW - Age Distribution
KW - Delphi technique
KW - consensus
KW - prevalence
KW - developing countries
KW - cognitive impairment
UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/gps.70055
U2 - 10.1002/gps.70055
DO - 10.1002/gps.70055
M3 - Article
C2 - 39938925
SN - 0885-6230
VL - 40
SP - e70055
JO - International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry
JF - International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry
IS - 2
M1 - e70055
ER -