Mangrove preservation could have significantly reduced damages from Hurricane Otis on the coast of Guerrero, Mexico

Mangroves play a crucial role in protecting coastal regions from the destructive forces of hurricanes. This is especially important in densely urbanized and highly developed regions such as Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico, which was severely impacted on October 25th, 2023 by Hurricane Otis, the strongest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast. However, widespread mangrove deforestation, driven by urban and tourism expansion, has diminished this natural protection. Here, we use satellite-derived data, including mangrove coverage (past and present), damaged households, infrastructure, and vegetation indices, to develop a regression model that quantifies the amount of damage as a function of distance to mangroves. Our analysis estimates the damage that could have been avoided if the mangrove coverage from the 1980s had been maintained. We observed that mangroves significantly reduced vegetation loss, infrastructure damage, and the number of destroyed households, a protective effect that increases near the coastline. This study highlights the importance of mangroves in mitigating hurricane damage and underscores the need for their protection and restoration as key components of climate resilience strategies.