Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Martin J.P. Sullivan*, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flávia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E.N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, B Marimon, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Lan Qie, Bonaventure Sonké, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel J.W. Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Galbraith, Manuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Shin Ichiro AibaMiguel N. Alexiades, Everton C. Almeida, Oliveira EA de, Esteban Álvarez Dávila, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Ana Andrade, SA Vieira, Luiz E.O.C. Aragão, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric J.M.M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Ashton, C. G Aymard, Fabrício B. Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, PB Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean François Bastin, Sarah A. Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoit Burban, JL Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Céron, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jerôme Chave, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Souza FC de, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Costa L da, M Dančák, Greta C. Dargie, Stuart Davies, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Haulleville T de, Medeiros MB de, Aguila Pasquel J del, Géraldine Derroire, Fiore A Di, Jean Louis Doucet, Aurélie Dourdain, V Droissant, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Richard Preziosi, Sophie Fauset, Richard Preziosi

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)869-874
JournalScience
Volume368
Issue number6493
Early online date21 May 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 May 2020

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