Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

Caroline Taylor; Tom R. Robinson; Stuart Dunning; Carr J Rachel; Matthew Westoby

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

Caroline Taylor
, Tom R. Robinson^*
, Stuart Dunning
, Carr J Rachel
, Matthew Westoby

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences

Newcastle University
University of Canterbury
Northumbria University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

Original language	English
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	14
Issue number	1
Early online date	7 Feb 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x
Publication status	Published - 7 Feb 2023

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title = "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally",

abstract = "AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with \textasciitilde{}1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.",

author = "Caroline Taylor and Robinson, \{Tom R.\} and Stuart Dunning and Rachel, \{Carr J\} and Matthew Westoby",

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T1 - Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

AU - Taylor, Caroline

AU - Robinson, Tom R.

AU - Dunning, Stuart

AU - Rachel, Carr J

AU - Westoby, Matthew

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Y1 - 2023/2/7

N2 - AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

AB - AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

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M3 - Article

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Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

Abstract

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