Evolution of offshore wind resources in Northern Europe under climate change

Climate-change impacts on offshore wind resources in Northern Europe over the 21st century are investigated based on the most up-to-date narratives of societal development and land use, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three scenarios are considered: a high-emissions (pessimistic) scenario, SSP5-8.5; an intermediate scenario, SSP2-4.5, in which current emissions do not vary notably; and, for the first time in this type of work, a low-emissions (optimistic) scenario, SSP1-1.9, representing the fulfilment of the ambitious goals of the EU's Green Deal and the Paris Agreement. A multi-model ensemble is constructed with the global climate models that are found to best reproduce the wind climate in Northern Europe. The results anticipate an overall decline in wind power density, especially in the high-emissions scenario and in certain regions (up to 30% off Western Ireland), which should be taken into account in planning future offshore wind deployments. As an exception, slight increases (around 10%) are projected in certain areas of the Baltic Sea. The general decline is less pronounced in the low-emissions scenario. Indeed, the results prove that reducing emissions as advocated by current climate objectives would not only weaken the declining trend but also lead to a more stable resource.