Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

Elsie M.F. Horne; William J. Hulme; Ruth H. Keogh; Tom M. Palmer; Elizabeth J. Williamson; Edward P.K. Parker; Venexia M. Walker; Rochelle Knight; Yinghui Wei; Kurt Taylor; Louis Fisher; Jessica Morley; Amir Mehrkar; Iain Dillingham; Sebastian Bacon; Ben Goldacre; Jonathan A.C. Sterne

doi:10.1093/aje/kwad179

Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

Elsie M.F. Horne
, William J. Hulme
, Ruth H. Keogh
, Tom M. Palmer
, Elizabeth J. Williamson
, Edward P.K. Parker
, Venexia M. Walker
, Rochelle Knight
, Yinghui Wei
, Kurt Taylor
, Louis Fisher
, Jessica Morley
, Amir Mehrkar
, Iain Dillingham
, Sebastian Bacon
, Ben Goldacre
, Jonathan A.C. Sterne

School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.

Original language	English
Number of pages	0
Journal	American Journal of Epidemiology
Volume	0
Issue number	0
Early online date	1 Sept 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad179
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2023

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Horne, E. M. F., Hulme, W. J., Keogh, R. H., Palmer, T. M., Williamson, E. J., Parker, E. P. K., Walker, V. M., Knight, R., Wei, Y., Taylor, K., Fisher, L., Morley, J., Mehrkar, A., Dillingham, I., Bacon, S., Goldacre, B., & Sterne, J. A. C. (2023). Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England. American Journal of Epidemiology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad179

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title = "Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England",

abstract = "Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.",

author = "Horne, \{Elsie M.F.\} and Hulme, \{William J.\} and Keogh, \{Ruth H.\} and Palmer, \{Tom M.\} and Williamson, \{Elizabeth J.\} and Parker, \{Edward P.K.\} and Walker, \{Venexia M.\} and Rochelle Knight and Yinghui Wei and Kurt Taylor and Louis Fisher and Jessica Morley and Amir Mehrkar and Iain Dillingham and Sebastian Bacon and Ben Goldacre and Sterne, \{Jonathan A.C.\}",

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Horne, EMF, Hulme, WJ, Keogh, RH, Palmer, TM, Williamson, EJ, Parker, EPK, Walker, VM, Knight, R, Wei, Y, Taylor, K, Fisher, L, Morley, J, Mehrkar, A, Dillingham, I, Bacon, S, Goldacre, B & Sterne, JAC 2023, 'Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England', American Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 0, no. 0. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad179

TY - JOUR

T1 - Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

AU - Horne, Elsie M.F.

AU - Hulme, William J.

AU - Keogh, Ruth H.

AU - Palmer, Tom M.

AU - Williamson, Elizabeth J.

AU - Parker, Edward P.K.

AU - Walker, Venexia M.

AU - Knight, Rochelle

AU - Wei, Yinghui

AU - Taylor, Kurt

AU - Fisher, Louis

AU - Morley, Jessica

AU - Mehrkar, Amir

AU - Dillingham, Iain

AU - Bacon, Sebastian

AU - Goldacre, Ben

AU - Sterne, Jonathan A.C.

PY - 2023/9/1

Y1 - 2023/9/1

N2 - Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.

AB - Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.

UR - https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/secam-research/1309/

U2 - 10.1093/aje/kwad179

DO - 10.1093/aje/kwad179

M3 - Article

SN - 0002-9262

VL - 0

JO - American Journal of Epidemiology

JF - American Journal of Epidemiology

IS - 0

ER -

Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

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Challenges in estimating waning effectiveness of two doses of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines beyond six months: an OpenSAFELY cohort study using linked electronic health records

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