Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

Elsie M.F. Horne; William J. Hulme; Ruth H. Keogh; Tom M. Palmer; Elizabeth J. Williamson; Edward P.K. Parker; Venexia M. Walker; Rochelle Knight; Yinghui Wei; Kurt Taylor; Louis Fisher; Jessica Morley; Amir Mehrkar; Iain Dillingham; Sebastian Bacon; Ben Goldacre; Jonathan A.C. Sterne

doi:10.1093/aje/kwad179

Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

Elsie M.F. Horne, William J. Hulme, Ruth H. Keogh, Tom M. Palmer, Elizabeth J. Williamson, Edward P.K. Parker, Venexia M. Walker, Rochelle Knight, Yinghui Wei, Kurt Taylor, Louis Fisher, Jessica Morley, Amir Mehrkar, Iain Dillingham, Sebastian Bacon, Ben Goldacre, Jonathan A.C. Sterne

School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics

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Abstract

Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.

Original language	English
Number of pages	0
Journal	American Journal of Epidemiology
Volume	0
Issue number	0
Early online date	1 Sept 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad179
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2023

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Horne, E. M. F., Hulme, W. J., Keogh, R. H., Palmer, T. M., Williamson, E. J., Parker, E. P. K., Walker, V. M., Knight, R., Wei, Y., Taylor, K., Fisher, L., Morley, J., Mehrkar, A., Dillingham, I., Bacon, S., Goldacre, B., & Sterne, J. A. C. (2023). Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England. American Journal of Epidemiology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad179

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title = "Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England",

abstract = "Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.",

author = "Horne, {Elsie M.F.} and Hulme, {William J.} and Keogh, {Ruth H.} and Palmer, {Tom M.} and Williamson, {Elizabeth J.} and Parker, {Edward P.K.} and Walker, {Venexia M.} and Rochelle Knight and Yinghui Wei and Kurt Taylor and Louis Fisher and Jessica Morley and Amir Mehrkar and Iain Dillingham and Sebastian Bacon and Ben Goldacre and Sterne, {Jonathan A.C.}",

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doi = "10.1093/aje/kwad179",

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Horne, EMF, Hulme, WJ, Keogh, RH, Palmer, TM, Williamson, EJ, Parker, EPK, Walker, VM, Knight, R, Wei, Y, Taylor, K, Fisher, L, Morley, J, Mehrkar, A, Dillingham, I, Bacon, S, Goldacre, B & Sterne, JAC 2023, 'Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England', American Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 0, no. 0. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad179

TY - JOUR

T1 - Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

AU - Horne, Elsie M.F.

AU - Hulme, William J.

AU - Keogh, Ruth H.

AU - Palmer, Tom M.

AU - Williamson, Elizabeth J.

AU - Parker, Edward P.K.

AU - Walker, Venexia M.

AU - Knight, Rochelle

AU - Wei, Yinghui

AU - Taylor, Kurt

AU - Fisher, Louis

AU - Morley, Jessica

AU - Mehrkar, Amir

AU - Dillingham, Iain

AU - Bacon, Sebastian

AU - Goldacre, Ben

AU - Sterne, Jonathan A.C.

PY - 2023/9/1

Y1 - 2023/9/1

N2 - Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.

AB - Understanding how the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine changes over time and in response to new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. In a previous study, Horne et al. (1) quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over 6 consecutive 4-week periods from 2 weeks to 26 weeks after the second dose. Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) when comparing vaccinated persons with unvaccinated persons was approximately log-linear over time and was consistent across COVID-19– related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the era of the Omicron variant, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after the second dose or March 31, 2022.

U2 - 10.1093/aje/kwad179

DO - 10.1093/aje/kwad179

M3 - Article

SN - 0002-9262

VL - 0

JO - American Journal of Epidemiology

JF - American Journal of Epidemiology

IS - 0

ER -

Challenges in estimating the effectiveness of 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine beyond 6 months in England

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