A new algorithm for estimating voter turnout when the number of ballot papers issued is unknown

L Ware; G Borisyuk; C Rallings; M Thrasher

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2005.04.003|ISSN

A new algorithm for estimating voter turnout when the number of ballot papers issued is unknown

L Ware, G Borisyuk, C Rallings, M Thrasher

Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Business

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Methods for estimating turnout in multi-member plurality (MMP) elections where the number of ballot papers issued is unknown tend to focus upon the distribution of votes between parties. This paper shows that existing methods may lead to significant errors in turnout estimates for English local government elections. We introduce a new method of calculating voter turnout that uses not only the total number of votes cast, but also information relating to the presence or absence of candidates and the distribution of votes between candidates of the same party. This method not only appears to improve substantially upon previously used algorithms, but also demonstrates that partial abstention is more likely when voters are presented with fewer of their chosen party's candidates than the number of seats at stake. We believe that this new algorithm may have general application to MMP elections. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	59-71
Number of pages	0
Journal	Electoral Studies
Volume	25
Issue number	0
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.04.003\|ISSN
Publication status	Published - 2006

Access to Document

10.1016/j.electstud.2005.04.003|ISSN

Cite this

@article{75a7efbe10ee49bea0475831ce77307f,

title = "A new algorithm for estimating voter turnout when the number of ballot papers issued is unknown",

abstract = "Methods for estimating turnout in multi-member plurality (MMP) elections where the number of ballot papers issued is unknown tend to focus upon the distribution of votes between parties. This paper shows that existing methods may lead to significant errors in turnout estimates for English local government elections. We introduce a new method of calculating voter turnout that uses not only the total number of votes cast, but also information relating to the presence or absence of candidates and the distribution of votes between candidates of the same party. This method not only appears to improve substantially upon previously used algorithms, but also demonstrates that partial abstention is more likely when voters are presented with fewer of their chosen party's candidates than the number of seats at stake. We believe that this new algorithm may have general application to MMP elections. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",

author = "L Ware and G Borisyuk and C Rallings and M Thrasher",

year = "2006",

doi = "10.1016/j.electstud.2005.04.003|ISSN",

language = "English",

volume = "25",

pages = "59--71",

journal = "Electoral Studies",

issn = "0261-3794",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

number = "0",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A new algorithm for estimating voter turnout when the number of ballot papers issued is unknown

AU - Ware, L

AU - Borisyuk, G

AU - Rallings, C

AU - Thrasher, M

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - Methods for estimating turnout in multi-member plurality (MMP) elections where the number of ballot papers issued is unknown tend to focus upon the distribution of votes between parties. This paper shows that existing methods may lead to significant errors in turnout estimates for English local government elections. We introduce a new method of calculating voter turnout that uses not only the total number of votes cast, but also information relating to the presence or absence of candidates and the distribution of votes between candidates of the same party. This method not only appears to improve substantially upon previously used algorithms, but also demonstrates that partial abstention is more likely when voters are presented with fewer of their chosen party's candidates than the number of seats at stake. We believe that this new algorithm may have general application to MMP elections. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AB - Methods for estimating turnout in multi-member plurality (MMP) elections where the number of ballot papers issued is unknown tend to focus upon the distribution of votes between parties. This paper shows that existing methods may lead to significant errors in turnout estimates for English local government elections. We introduce a new method of calculating voter turnout that uses not only the total number of votes cast, but also information relating to the presence or absence of candidates and the distribution of votes between candidates of the same party. This method not only appears to improve substantially upon previously used algorithms, but also demonstrates that partial abstention is more likely when voters are presented with fewer of their chosen party's candidates than the number of seats at stake. We believe that this new algorithm may have general application to MMP elections. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

U2 - 10.1016/j.electstud.2005.04.003|ISSN

DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2005.04.003|ISSN

M3 - Article

SN - 0261-3794

VL - 25

SP - 59

EP - 71

JO - Electoral Studies

JF - Electoral Studies

IS - 0

ER -

A new algorithm for estimating voter turnout when the number of ballot papers issued is unknown

Abstract

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this